Modern oral nicotine steals the spotlight as the Vape category grapples with illicit products and PMTA delays.

“In the Pacific Northwest, chewing tobacco and snuff continues its consistent decline year over year,” explained Jon Manuyag, director of marketing, Plaid Pantry. “Consumers in the smokeless categories are shifting more towards the modern oral nicotine pouches like ZYN, ON!, Rogue, Velo and Grizzly. That is the segment where we see the most consistent positive double-digit trends.”

“Traditional smokeless is flat for us, and smokeless alternatives are up double digits,” said Jessica Starnes, director of loyalty and tobacco category manager, Weigel’s. “We are seeing the most growth in the nicotine pouches, and we are leaning into dedicating more space to nicotine pouches.”

Article Summary:

• Smokeless Nicotine Growth.
  Goldman Sachs’ Q1 Nicotine Nuggets survey representing approximately 48,000 retail locations across the U.S. concurred that smokeless nicotine volume growth continued in Q1, led by modern oral nicotine brands ZYN and Rogue. Respondents were positive about the category going forward, expecting strong sales increases in 2025.
  
  
• Smokeless category overall grew 12.3%.
  Chicago-based research firm Circana found that the smokeless category overall grew 12.3% in dollar sales and 8% in unit sales in the convenience channel for the 52 weeks ending April 20. Snuff fell 5.6% in dollar sales and dropped 9.3% in unit sales, while chewing tobacco declined 6.9% in dollar sales and decreased 7.5% in unit sales.
  
  As the popularity of nicotine pouches has grown, however, Manuyag noted there’s been additional pressure on the category. Over the past six months, Plaid Pantry has seen supply chain issues from large nicotine pouch manufactures due to the increase in demand. 
  
  
• Inflation and discretionary income spending.
  Goldman Sachs noted in its Q1 Nicotine Nuggets survey that it is “incrementally cautious on the U.S. tobacco/nicotine industry in the near term given increased pressure on the tobacco consumer from persistent inflation, pressure on discretionary incomes and tighter regulations, all of which are driving lower usage of cigs and further down trading.”
  
  
• Black Market sales of illicit, disposable flavored e-cigs.
  “E-cigarette volumes decelerated, reflecting the rising popularity of illicit disposable flavored e-cigs, much of which is not reported, and a growing concern for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and category,” according to the survey. The survey further noted that only 10% of retailers report easing illicit e-cigarette headwinds, compared to 17% in January. While FDA enforcement is said to be underway, most retailers report that progress is slow and “not enough to make a meaningful impact.”
  

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